Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 99 bps (69% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 58 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 39 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 75 bps (79% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 19 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 72 bps (79% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 51 bps (70% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 7 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

*Where you see 25 bps probability, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.